Trade Review and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 159.84 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving lower from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

The sharp decline in USD/JPY is most likely related to limited intervention attempts in the foreign exchange market by the Bank of Japan, something that many analysts had warned about earlier in the day. This appears to be only a preliminary move ahead of potentially larger intervention measures, so traders should exercise extreme caution when considering long positions.

Later today, the market will focus on U.S. private-sector employment data, as well as the ISM Services PMI report. In addition to macroeconomic statistics, market participants will closely monitor comments from Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury officials. Particular attention will be paid to remarks by Federal Reserve Board member Michael S. Barr, whose comments are important for shaping monetary policy expectations. His assessment of inflation, overall economic conditions, and the outlook for interest rates could significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's next steps.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry level around 159.89 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 160.08 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.18, I plan to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a reversal of 30–35 points from that level. Further gains in the pair can be expected today if there is negative news regarding the agreement and if U.S. economic data comes in strong.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun moving higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.76 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, growth toward 159.89 and 160.18 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 159.76 level (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key downward target for sellers will be 159.49, where I plan to close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a rebound of 20–25 points from that level. Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if U.S. reports come in weaker than expected.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.89 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 159.76 and 159.49 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.