Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1792 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell euros.

The euro fell amid the start of US military actions against Iran. Increased volatility in the currency markets is a direct result of growing concerns among market participants. The consequences of this conflict may have a noticeable and prolonged impact on the global economy. Rising energy prices, potential disruptions in raw material supplies, and further destabilization in the region are factors that could slow economic recovery and amplify inflationary pressures. The European economy, being more dependent on energy imports and vulnerable to external shocks, may feel these factors particularly acutely, putting pressure on the euro.

Today, we await data on German retail sales. The figures will show how actively consumers in the Eurozone's largest economy continue to spend, which is good for GDP growth but bad for inflation. Simultaneously, investors will closely examine business activity indices in the manufacturing sector for both Germany and the entire Eurozone. These indicators, derived from surveys of purchasing managers, provide insight into industry trends. Weak figures may signal a slowdown in production processes, while positive data will support optimistic sentiment.

However, the most anticipated event of the day will likely be ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech. Such speeches always attract heightened attention because they often contain hints about future monetary policy. The markets will be looking for any signals about the ECB's next steps on interest rates aimed at supporting the economy and ensuring price stability.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1788 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1824. At point 1.1824, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth for the euro today can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.

Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1765 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One could expect a rise to the opposing levels of 1.1788 and 1.1824.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros today after reaching 1.1765 (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1731 level, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy on the bounce (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pair will remain today, in any case. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1788 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. One could expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.1765 and 1.1731.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.