Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 1.05%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.64%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.69%.

However, index futures are currently down sharply. The trigger was the breakdown in US–Iran talks in Islamabad, which failed to deliver the expected breakthrough on de-escalation. Against that backdrop, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the key route for global energy flows — directly pushed oil prices higher. Iran's seizure of several commercial vessels also hit markets. After a period of record gains on Wall Street that had fostered optimism and positive expectations, the sudden deterioration in geopolitics and the rise in energy prices introduced a new element of uncertainty.

The MSCI Asia Pacific equity index fell by 0.6%, with decliners outnumbering advancers roughly three to one, as higher oil prices worsened the growth outlook. Futures on the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped by about 0.5% after the cash indices closed at record highs on strong corporate results. European indices are set to open down roughly 1%.

Brent crude rose by 1.1% to $103 per barrel, likely extending its fourth consecutive day of gains as the lack of progress in US–Iran talks keeps supply-risk premiums elevated. Year-to-date, Brent is up roughly 70%, with most of the increase occurring after the Middle East conflict began in late February. Bonds fell as higher oil prices stoked inflation concerns.

Although US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran would be extended indefinitely, investors remain cautious given the lack of negotiation progress in the nearly two-month conflict. The longer the war drags on and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, sustaining elevated oil prices, the greater the risk of meaningful economic fallout for global economies.

Tension remains high as the US and Iran failed to convene a new round of talks and both sides continued to restrict passage through the waterway. According to reports, two of the attacked vessels — the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas — were boarded by Iranian forces today, marking a new phase in Tehran's efforts to assert control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Elsewhere, gold fell by 0.8% to about $4,700 an ounce, silver slid by about 2% to roughly $76.15 an ounce, and Bitcoin eased to around $77,800.

As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the primary task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,125. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a climb to $7,138. Equally a priority for bulls is control above $7,156, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves near $7,106. A break below that level would likely push the instrument back to $7,087 and could open the way to $7,066.