2026.03.0204:51:55UTC+00Indonesia Trade Surplus Below Forecasts

Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD 0.95 billion in January 2026, down from USD 3.49 billion in the same month a year earlier and well below market expectations of USD 2.76 billion. This was the smallest surplus since April 2025, despite the recent reciprocal trade agreement between Indonesia and the US, under which Washington agreed to hold tariffs on Indonesian exports at 19%, reduced from the 32% initially proposed in the previous year.

Imports surged 18.21% year-on-year to USD 21.2 billion, led by non-oil and gas imports, which rose 16.71%, and oil and gas imports, which jumped 27.52%. By contrast, export growth was relatively subdued, edging up 3.39% to USD 22.16 billion. Non-oil and gas exports increased 4.38%, supported by robust shipments of animal and vegetable fats and oils, as well as electrical machinery and equipment. These gains were partly offset by a steep 15.62% decline in oil and gas exports, weighed down by lower crude oil and natural gas volumes.